March delivered a highly challenging month for markets with the MSCI All Country World Index of global equities ending the month down -5.4%, pushing it into negative territory for the year-to-date. The bombing of Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices rocketing higher and ignited fears of a feed through into higher inflation and potentially higher interest rates. These fears of higher rates, instead of the lower rates that were previously forecast, also sent bond prices lower with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index of global fixed interest securities down -1.8% in GBP hedged terms.
Oil was the dominant story and primary market driver in March. The US, which is largely self-sufficient for energy, saw its S&P 500 Index fall just -3.2% over the month, likely also benefitting from its perception as a relative safe-haven. Conversely, emerging markets like India, which is hugely reliant upon imported oil, fell sharply and pushed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index down -11.4% for the month. Korea, which had been a market darling in 2026 so far and is almost entirely dependent on imports for its energy needs, saw its MSCI index fall -24% in March. Conversely, the MSCI China fell just -5.9%, likely benefitting from the fact that China has made significant investments into renewable energy and strategic oil reserves over recent years.
In the UK, the FTSE All-Share Index fell -6.7% in March. The rapid rise in energy prices reignited inflationary fears and resulted in expectations of the Bank of England making possibly 2 to 3 interest rate cuts in 2026 reversing to potentially multiple rises. Although this backdrop was helpful to large oil stocks like BP (+27% in March) and Shell (+17% in March), the impact on the more domestic parts of the economy found in mid-sized companies (FTSE 250 Index -10.5%) and smaller sized companies (FTSE UK Small Cap -11.6%) were particularly brutal.
Unsurprisingly, commodity markets were the most volatile over the month. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose +11.6% in March in GBP hedged terms, however this hides huge underlying dispersion. While many were clamouring for gold and silver exposure at the start of the year, most commentators thought oil markets were in a state of oversupply. However, the geopolitical tensions resulted in a rapid re-evaluation and the USD price of oil rose over +60% in March. Over the same period gold fell -12% and silver fell over -20%. This reaffirms to us the benefits of our broad and diversified approach to commodities rather than the folly of trying to predict which individual commodity is likely to win next.
All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms unless otherwise specified.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this material is for information only and is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete.
Home / News / Market commentary / YOU AM market commentary: March
YOU AM market commentary: March
March delivered a highly challenging month for markets with the MSCI All Country World Index of global equities ending the month down -5.4%, pushing it into negative territory for the year-to-date. The bombing of Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices rocketing higher and ignited fears of a feed through into higher inflation and potentially higher interest rates. These fears of higher rates, instead of the lower rates that were previously forecast, also sent bond prices lower with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index of global fixed interest securities down -1.8% in GBP hedged terms.
Oil was the dominant story and primary market driver in March. The US, which is largely self-sufficient for energy, saw its S&P 500 Index fall just -3.2% over the month, likely also benefitting from its perception as a relative safe-haven. Conversely, emerging markets like India, which is hugely reliant upon imported oil, fell sharply and pushed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index down -11.4% for the month. Korea, which had been a market darling in 2026 so far and is almost entirely dependent on imports for its energy needs, saw its MSCI index fall -24% in March. Conversely, the MSCI China fell just -5.9%, likely benefitting from the fact that China has made significant investments into renewable energy and strategic oil reserves over recent years.
In the UK, the FTSE All-Share Index fell -6.7% in March. The rapid rise in energy prices reignited inflationary fears and resulted in expectations of the Bank of England making possibly 2 to 3 interest rate cuts in 2026 reversing to potentially multiple rises. Although this backdrop was helpful to large oil stocks like BP (+27% in March) and Shell (+17% in March), the impact on the more domestic parts of the economy found in mid-sized companies (FTSE 250 Index -10.5%) and smaller sized companies (FTSE UK Small Cap -11.6%) were particularly brutal.
Unsurprisingly, commodity markets were the most volatile over the month. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose +11.6% in March in GBP hedged terms, however this hides huge underlying dispersion. While many were clamouring for gold and silver exposure at the start of the year, most commentators thought oil markets were in a state of oversupply. However, the geopolitical tensions resulted in a rapid re-evaluation and the USD price of oil rose over +60% in March. Over the same period gold fell -12% and silver fell over -20%. This reaffirms to us the benefits of our broad and diversified approach to commodities rather than the folly of trying to predict which individual commodity is likely to win next.
All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms unless otherwise specified.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this material is for information only and is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete.